Why is no one paying attention to Belgian politics?

14 June 2024

Nearly everyone whose work is connected to the government of the EU lives in Belgium. But when it comes to commentary on the European Parliament elections, the Belgian ‘mega-election’ is just an afterthought. That’s a mistake, because this year's Belgian elections were historically significant. Let me explain. 

WHAT HAPPENED 

Belgium is the home of surrealism, and pundits love to portray Belgian politics much in the same light. The most common observation about Belgian politics is that it’s massively complex. The second most common is that it’s a country politically split in two between a rich, conservative-voting North and a poor, socialist-voting South (Brussels is somewhere in between).  

Both of these are no longer true. 

For the first time in recent history, both the northern region of Flanders and the southern region of Wallonia have voted in the same way, for the centre-right.  

In northern Flanders, the conservative and Flemish nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), the winner of every election since 2010, has held on as the largest party. The far-right Flemish Interest surged, albeit not to the extent that had been predicted by the polls.   

In southern Wallonia, the centre-right Reformist Movement (MR) won a surprise victory, coupled with a surge from The Committed (Les Engagés; LE), a rebrand of the Christian democrats in Wallonia. 

This means it’s all but certain that N-VA will form a coalition in Flanders with the Christian and Social Democrats (who also increased their seat count). MR and LE will form a government in Wallonia, ending decades of socialist rule there. These five parties will then go on to form a national government. Simple, right? 

WHY NATIONAL POLITICS MATTERS 

At first sight, it’s hard to see why Belgium (or the politics of any member state not named France, Germany, Italy, or Spain) matters on the European stage. At 2.61% of the EU population and only 22 of the Parliament’s 720 seats, it may seem like Belgium does not amount to much. But there are three reasons why you should care about what happens in Belgium, and in Member State national politics more widely. 

First, most voters attach less importance to European Parliament elections than their national elections. This means that a vote for a radical party is “easier”, as the impact is further removed from them. This also applied to the Belgian vote: while the moderately conservative party won the national elections, the far right scored the highest in the European Parliament elections. Presumably, this informed Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election straight after the results. What he’s really doing is daring French voters to vote for far-right parties in a “real” election which will determine France’s government, and shape its future. 

Second, lest we forget, Belgium holds the Council Presidency for another month. This means that for the remainder of June, the Belgians will still be in charge of negotiating compromises in one of the EU’s two legislative chambers. While the current government exists only in an acting fashion, it is still empowered to act on the European stage and will be influenced by the election results.  

Finally, the outcome of the Belgian election can impact EU-wide policies. The fact that the whole of Belgium will have centre to centre-right governments means that the Belgian position at an EU level will be clearer. Thus, a long period of Belgian abstentions due to internal disagreements may come to an end, which can play a role on the margins in certain policy files in, say, the climate sphere. 

LESSONS FOR THE REST OF EUROPE 

The outcome of Belgium's elections offers a blueprint to moderate forces on all sides of the political spectrum. In sharp contrast to the Dutch conservative-liberal VVD of Mark Rutte, N-VA firmly closed the door on collaborations with the far-right. Moderate voters seem to have rewarded them for this stance, and it has also played a part in voters rejecting far-right parties due to their functional inability to govern. 

So, the next time you’re reading headlines and are deciding between reading yet another analysis of the European Parliament elections versus say the Bulgarian national elections – my advice is to choose the latter. They’re a lot more important than you think.

Author: Arno Sterck